![]() Forest were unlikely to have much possession last season, so signed a striker who performed well at a counter-attacking side who could create goal-scoring opportunities from limited touches. It is also important to choose players who fit your style of play. To lower this risk, it is vital that the recruitment team works extremely closely with the head coach and that everybody is aligned with the tactical needs and the position a player will play in. Even if there is a 90% chance the head coach will like a player, a 90% chance they will be the best player for their position, that they will be played in the correct position, that they will have no fitness issues and so on, then there is still only a roughly fifty-fifty chance the transfer will work out. While all clubs use data and video analysis to help them identify potential signings, Syrianos says the smarter clubs are better at “alleviating the biases” in their recruitment decisions and understanding what biases affect their decision-makers’ judgements.īut it is impossible to eliminate all risk from new signings as “predicting player performance is more difficult than predicting the behavior of stocks.” While it isn’t wise for a club to go all-in on high-risk signings, inevitably some transfers will not work out. For Forest, that would involve targeting starters in teams who are equivalent to mid-table Premier League sides. ![]() Syrianos says that for those top five players, it is best to sign players who are minimal risk by targeting players who are regular starters for teams ranked better than you. With salaries so heavily concentrated, it is important to manage risk effectively. By concentrating salaries, Syrianos says “as a bottom team, your starting eleven might end up being average to slightly above average in the league.” This is because there is a very strong correlation between salary spend and final league position, so clubs with smaller salary budgets are likely to finish toward the bottom of the league. His model suggests the optimum spending for a newly-promoted side is to concentrate around 40% of the total salary budget on the top five players in the team and spend around 70% of the total salary budget on the top eleven players. Syrianos believes that concentrating a club’s spending is the better option. When it comes to strategy, clubs can either spread out their finances across the whole team or they can concentrate their salary spending among a few top players. By April, promotion was looking more likely, and so more time was spent looking at players for the Premier League. In March, they had a 30% chance of promotion, so scouts would spend 30% of their time scouting Premier League-caliber players. ![]() He says Forest prepared two transfer strategies: one for the Championship and one for the Premier League.įorest used their in-house probability model to assess their chances of winning promotion, and reassigned their resources accordingly. ![]() George Syrianos was Forest’s head of recruitment last summer. ![]()
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